The Italian economy is starting to avoid recession also in the first quarter of 2023.
This was stated by the Confindustria Study Centre , which today published an update on the situation.
This year, growth in our country will be low, slightly above or below +0.6%, but better than expected. «The price of gas - reads the document - is much lower at the beginning of the year than expected for the end of 2022: a good premise for the first quarter, for business costs and for the recovery path of inflation from the peak, started at the end of 2022". For 2023 "there is a generalized and important upward revision compared to the post-summer estimates, when stagnation or a moderate recession were expected". The drop in the price of energy since the end of 2022 , which in any case remains well above the levels of two years ago, " is favoring the reduction of inflation in Italy and Europe (albeit still at high values) and this suggests the end rate hike by 2023 (not before a couple more hikes).
If general inflation falls, the cost of non-energy raw materials increases (+16.8% for metals) and the trend in prices excluding energy and food is also up (+4.6% from +4, 2%), for the transmission of price increases on other assets.
However, Italy is proving to be very resilient , with industrial production improving. After the rebound in January (+1.6%) following a three-month decline, for January the qualitative data "paint an improving scenario", the experts of the trade association say. In construction, on the other hand, a continuation of the weakness is expected.
Finally, the study underlines the stability of household consumption with «prudent consumption decisions due to high inflation» and «spending shifted even more towards discount stores».
(Unioneonline/F)
