Over the last week, the number of reported Covid-19 cases and deaths has decreased; ICU admissions are stable, hospitalizations are on the rise. In particular, the 7-day incidence rate of hospitalizations in the 0-9 and 70-79 years range is slightly increasing.
This is highlighted by the extended weekly report of the Higher Institute of Health on Covid-19, according to which reinfections from Covid-19 are increasing: in the last week the percentage of reinfections out of the total reported cases is equal to 4.1%, increasing compared to the previous week (3.5%). From 24 August 2021 to 6 April 2022, 319,005 cases of reinfection were reported, equal to 3.1% of the total cases notified.
The analysis of the risk of reinfection starting from 6 December 2021, the date considered to be the reference date for the start of the spread of the most contagious Omicron variant, highlights an increase in the relative risk of reinfection, we read in the extended ISS report, especially in subjects with first Covid-19 diagnosis notified for over 210 days compared to those who had the first diagnosis between the previous 90 and 210 days; in subjects not vaccinated or vaccinated with at least one dose over 120 days compared to vaccinated with at least one dose within 120 days. More reinfections also in healthcare workers compared to the rest of the population and in the younger age groups (12 to 49 years) than in people with the first diagnosis between the ages of 50-59 years. Probably the greater risk of reinfection in the younger age groups, explains the ISS, is attributable to higher risk behaviors and exposures, compared to the age groups over 60 years.
The RT INDEX - Rt transmissibility index towards a further decline. The forecast RT - so-called “augmented” and based on a technique that allows providing a more recent estimate - is in fact equal to 1.09 as of March 29, 2022, therefore a decrease compared to the value of 1.24 as of March 22, 2022. In the latest weekly monitoring released yesterday, the RT was 1.15. However, the forecast RT is always confirmed above the epidemic level of 1.
MORTALITY - According to the ISS, the mortality rate for the population over the age of 12, in the period 11/02 / 2022-13 / 03/2022, for the unvaccinated (39 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) is about 5 five times higher than those vaccinated with a full cycle of less than 120 days (12 deaths per 100,000 inhab.) and about 12 times higher than those vaccinated with an additional / booster dose (3 deaths per 100,000 inhab.). The rate of admissions to intensive care, in the period 18/2 / 2022-20 / 3/2022, for the unvaccinated is 8 times higher than for vaccinated with boosters.
