"According to the Global burden of disease (Gbd), an international program that evaluates the impact of the main diseases in terms of mortality and disability, in Italy a peak of infections, hospitalizations and deaths occurred between January and February of this year, followed by a decline and a peak of recovery. A more significant decline should begin in mid-April, and then continue until July, also thanks to the good weather ".
Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Pharmacological Institute, says this in an interview with Corriere della Sera.
"The forecasts of the Gbd, however developed before the advent of Omicron BA.2, indicate zero cases of Covid in Italy between June and August. An important prospect, even if we have learned that this virus can hold us many surprises", Remuzzi says, underlining that among the reasons for concern there is in the first place what is happening in Hong Kong. "A very heavy wave - he specifies - which unequivocally demonstrates how Omicron is not a little dangerous in a poorly vaccinated population, especially the elderly. Only the complete cycle with three doses can protect us from this and other variants. In Italy we have one million and 20,000 over 70 who have not completed the vaccination cycle: a large circulation reservoir for the virus ".
Furthermore, the concern arises from the new variant Xe: "Should we worry? Yes, because it is a recombinant variant, that is, it has combined parts of Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.2. Unlike other recombinant strains. , like Xd and Xf (mix between Delta and Omicron), which are not very popular, Xe is gaining ground in England (where the sequencing activity is very intense) and we expect it to be already present in Italy ".
(Unioneonline / vl)
