The curve of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy is climbing faster, with a doubling time that has been reduced from about 20 to 14 days and by Christmas it could lead to between 25,000 and 30,000 cases, according to estimates. by physicist Giorgio Sestili, founder of the Facebook page “Coronavirus-Scientific data and analysis”.
For Guido Rasi, consultant to the Covid Emergency Commissioner Francesco Paolo Figliuolo, Christmas 2021 could be better than 2020. But in any case it will not be holidays like the pre-Covid ones.
The contagion index is stable but higher than 1: the Covindex, the parameter that can be superimposed on the Rt index and updated on the basis of the ratio between new positive cases and swabs, is still 1.23. This means that the epidemic continues to grow and that the situation must be considered with great attention. "In the last week, the doubling time of cases has decreased, which is now about 14 days. This means - Sestili found - that at the end of November we could have about 15,000 cases and by Christmas around 30,000 cases". It is an estimate and, he specified, "like any estimate it has margins of error, but at the moment it is plausible". Of course, he continued, "all the variables of the case must be considered, as any containment measures could limit the growth of the epidemic, but it is also possible that the epidemic is progressing faster because we are still in a phase of expansion and it seems that the growth rate is increasing over time ".
Also according to Rasi "we are very at risk" and "in a very precarious balance", but "if we are very disciplined in this month that remains, we could have a better Christmas than last year, but normal I would say no". What is certain for Anthony Fauci, pandemic adviser to US President Joe Biden, is that the solution is not in the hands of a single country: "Despite the impressive scientific successes in rapidly developing numerous safe vaccines and effective - he said - their distribution, as well as that of the various treatments, has not been the same throughout the planet ".
VACCINES FOR CHILDREN - Vaccinating children is the new point on which we are discussing. If the little ones had sustained the impact of the Alfa variant well, they are more defenseless in front of the Delta. According to Rasi, even children can make a contribution to the spread of the virus, but the protection of the vaccine "is above all for themselves because we see that, unfortunately, the Delta variant in this fourth wave will not spare them either".
The first green light for vaccines for children between the ages of 5 and 11 came from the US regulatory body, the Food and Drug Administration (Fda), while the evaluation by the European Medicines Agency (Ema ). The indications of the FDA regarding the doses for children foresee a third of the current Pfizer vaccine and a tenth of the Moderna: for both vaccines a dose of 10 milligrams is therefore foreseen instead of 30 and 100, respectively.
THIRD DOSE - The other big question about vaccines is about the third dose. Is it really necessary? The answer is yes, according to data recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine and arrived from Israel, the country that first promoted a mass campaign with the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine: they indicate that antibodies begin to reduce as early as two months. from the second dose in all age groups and that after six months there is an increase in both infections and cases of serious illness. "In the light of the data collected in Israel, a further increase in infections and seriously ill patients is to be expected", observed virologist Francesco Broccolo of the University of Milan Bicocca.
How long will the third dose be effective? For Rasi it cannot be ruled out that it may be the last, if new variants do not emerge. Many immunologists, he said, estimate that "the traditional course of a vaccination involves three doses" because these are a complete course for the immune system, which stabilizes immunological memory. If the variants of the virus remain these, we may be done here. I am among the optimists. "
(Unioneonline / D)
