There are only a few days left for the start of the dances for the Quirinale, the election that most of all measures the health conditions of politics between games of force, conspiracies and showdowns.
The first call for the 1009 so-called "great electors" (630 deputies, 315 senators, 58 regional delegates and 6 senators for life) was set for January 24: the Chamber will proceed with one (secret) vote per day and not two as usual in the morning and in the afternoon. For the first three votes a two-thirds majority will be required (in this case 673), starting from the fourth an absolute majority is sufficient (505). Except for particular upheavals, therefore, the name of the successor by Sergio Mattarella on the highest hill in Rome will arrive between 24 and 27 January.
The feat of voting at the first call has so far only been accomplished by Francesco Cossiga in 1985 and by Carlo Azeglio Ciampi in 1999. And this time? There is a name that could get a large and transversal majority, and it is that of the current Prime Minister Mario Draghi. But it is difficult for the game to close on Monday, more likely to converge on the premier's name later. What is certain is that with (approximately) 463 votes from the center left and (approximately) 452 votes from the center right, net of snipers, no one is able to do it alone. Decisive will therefore be the other 94 great voters coming from the Mixed group (many heads and no direction) or not enrolled in any component.
Here are the positions of the parties, more or less explicit so far.
CENTER RIGHT - Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni take their time while the president of Forza Italia and father of the center-right Silvio Berlusconi, protagonist of the so-called "squirrel operation" to collect the votes in his favor, does not give up. Not yet at least, despite Vittorio Sgarbi calling him "sad" and about to think of "an honorable way out". In the next few hours, the former Cav will say whether he wants to go all the way or not: his votes for the moment would be close to 500, a figure that does not guarantee him any certainty even from the fourth call. For Salvini, however, the goal is to arrive on Monday with a name only for all three forces: if it is not Berlusconi, it will be someone who makes everyone agree. There are no particular vetoes on Mario Draghi, but the move of the current prime minister to Colle would be a big problem for the government. Even among the center-right forces, with Meloni who would push to return to the polls and the others who instead want to reach the end of the legislature in 2023.
CENTRO LEFT AND M5S - The center left and the Cinquestelle Movement work (relatively) together. For the moment there is no shared name. There is a no to Berlusconi, but if the former prime minister were to decide in the end not to show up, a new problem would arise. That of saying no to other names circulating in the center-right, such as the current President of the Senate Elisabetta Alberti Casellati or the former Minister of Education Letizia Moratti. The name of Draghi is very popular with the secretary of the Democratic Party Enrico Letta and some dem currents, such as Lorenzo Guerini's reformist base, made up of the former Renzians. But the number one of the Cinquestelle does not like Giuseppe Conte at all, nor does Roberto Speranza, leader of Liberi e equuali, who met Letta today. Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Renzi are more or less openly from Draghi's party. The strategy, for now, remains to wait for the next move by the center right.
(Unioneonline / D)
