Eight thousand migrants landed in Lampedusa in the first seven and a half months of this year, nearly two thousand in Sardinia. The numbers are unparalleled, and the Sicilian island's leadership is currently unchallenged. What is worrying, however, is the trend in Sardinia: while Lampedusa (closer to Tunisia than to Italy) tends to lose a few percentage points in total landings (last year they accounted for 56 percent of the national figure), Sardinia will see a leap of over 150 percent in 2026. In just one year, according to regional data .
The data leaking from the Interior Ministry with great difficulty—it inexplicably provides national figures, but treats local numbers as if they were a state secret instead of informing citizens—certifies a more than doubling of the numbers from January to August 2025: there were 750-800 arrivals, now they are 2,000. This leap forward has serious consequences for the deployment of (police) forces in the field and the logistical arrangements for the new arrivals. The Monastir hotspot, if the current trend continues, will not be sufficient.
Is this increase in arrivals on the island a coincidence? The Ministry of the Interior isn't so optimistic, given the caliber of the criminal organizations involved in this often deadly migrant trade: in fact, they're apparently addressing the issue. The gangs recruiting smugglers bound for Sardinia (one has just been arrested, the Cagliari Police Headquarters is working on a second, and it's not out of the question that the same outcome will occur) may have decided to strengthen the Sardinian route. The signs are there, and countermeasures—if that's the case—could be urgent. After all, reaching Sardinia by small boat takes about nine hours, and in this summer, with its favorable weather, it's not such a complex undertaking.
