In the aftermath of the days of June 8th and 9th that have just passed, the balance between winners and losers is necessary, especially if examined, reported and updated based on the real balance of power that will be expressed in the European political and parliamentary context. .
Voting was held to elect seven hundred and twenty deputies to the European Parliament. And beyond the so-called "party of abstentionism", which seems to have been the true master, the very last polls were characterized by the exploits of the sovereignist right. Emmanuel Macron, following the triumph of Marine Le Pen, has decided to call early elections in France. The latter decision, far from probably having to be read as a sign of weakness, is instead characterized as a prudent choice, marked by solid strategic pragmatism as it is aimed, with good likelihood, at encouraging the French electorate to take responsibility in the choices relating to the future of a great country such as France which, if considered carefully, up until today, and precisely under the Presidency of Emmanuel Macron, has been able to dominate the European context. It is true, according to the ancient adage, that "he who leaves the old path for the new has undergone the test", but sometimes it could be equally true that the proverbial "test" may prove to be not exactly favourable.
The current historical and political moment presents itself in terms, perhaps still uncertain, of becoming, and the turning points could prove to be different as they are conditioned by the game of alliances, not only intra-European but also extra-European.
Well. If it is true, therefore, that the French far right, represented by the National Front, managed to triumph, however, equally undeniably, the European People's Party group seems to establish itself as the predominant political force in the European Parliament. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats took second place jointly with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, behind the European People's Party. “Giorgia”, which in Europe belongs to the right-wing group of the European Conservatives and Reformists (Ecr), therefore to a different political force compared to that of the allies of Forza Italia (European People's Party) and the League, triumphed in Italy, confirming its leadership, if ever there was really a need for it, but what role will it really be able to express in the European panorama which still appears to be enclosed, despite everything, around the so-called Ursula majority?
Probably, even if we want to consider and grant everything, on an exquisitely national level, the true revelation, the absolute novelty (if we wanted to call it that) was the affirmation and consecration of the leadership of Elly Schlein, who, contrary to all expectations, he was able to lead the centre-left, the Democratic Party, towards surprising unitary results, through the wise and passionate reconstruction of the relationship between the Party itself and its electorate, between the top and the Square. Saying it differently, the Democratic Party led by Elly Schlein seems to have become truly competitive again, and seems to have greatly shortened the distance from the party of Giorgia Meloni, President of the Council of Ministers.
The circumstance, on a national level, is anything but negligible, especially if looked at in a future perspective, and especially if considered on the level of supra-national politics. Even more so when one wants to consider that among the very first tasks of the MEPs there will be precisely that of approving the candidate to lead the European Commission, which, with good approximation, can only be the president in office, Ursula Von der Leyen, who could well have their mandate confirmed. And even more so, when, all things considered, we want to believe that no party seems to have a majority in the European Parliament, so that the forces in the field will necessarily have to seek a stable compromise in order to create a coalition that can boast a solid and lasting majority . Probably, the centre-right European People's Party, as well as the centre-left Socialists, will continue to prevail, meaning that despite the result, the sovereign right may not play any decisive role in the European context. The European political scene has always been complex, and even if Ursula von der Leyen were to be reconfirmed at the helm of the European Commission, she would at least have to look for appropriate ways to stop the advance of the sovereignist right. Will a potential alliance with the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni be possible in this circumstance? Who should give up what? Assuming and perhaps not granting that one is willing to make potential coexistence compromises. What role will national opposition parties be able to carve out for themselves in the European context? Probably, the next elections in France following Emmanuel Macron's decision will be useful to fully understand the future of the European Union and its balance of power.
Giuseppina Di Salvatore
(Lawyer – Nuoro)