Poland is holding its breath. The first exit polls for the presidential runoff give Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski a very slight lead. And even though the pro-European candidate close to Donald Tusk immediately claimed victory, the results could change overnight.
The Ipsos data show the neck-and-neck race that everyone expected, with 50.3% for Trzaskowski, 52, a member of Civic Platform, and 49.7% for the historic Karol Nawrocki, 42, the sovereignist who ran with an independent list, but who is supported by Kaczinsky's Pis . "We won, even and on a knife's edge," Trzaskowski said, while admitting that confirmation will have to be waited for in the next few hours.
"I will be the president who unites all Poles," he added. But his opponent did not give up at all: "You will see that tonight we will win and save Poland," Nawrocki replied immediately. "We will not allow Donald Tusk's monopoly in the country's institutions."
With today's vote, Poland is deciding not only who will be the new head of state for the next 5 years, but also the future structure of this country and its role in Europe and the world, as the protagonists of the electoral campaign themselves have repeatedly declared. And in fact, two opposing visions are clashing: the mayor of Warsaw - married, with two children, and a past as an MEP - in recent years has shared with Donald Tusk the leadership of the Civic Platform party, winner of the 2023 general election, and declares himself open to dialogue and the search for a broad social consensus, to help Polish society emerge from the drastic divisions caused by the actions of the populist government of the Law and Justice party (2015-2023).
Trzaskowski's election could pave the way for the implementation of several laws blocked starting in 2023 by the presidential veto of the outgoing head of state, Andrzej Duda, also linked to Kaczynski's PiS. Among the most urgent issues, urged by the EU, is essentially Poland's return to the rule of law: for years, Duda has in fact ignored criticism and negative rulings from EU courts by appointing judges according to political procedures, deemed not compliant with European laws. In the international arena, as president, the mayor of Warsaw could support greater integration of Poland into the EU also in the field of defense and Euro-Atlantic cooperation.
