Yesterday's news, July 19, 2026: the United States has launched new attacks against Iran, apparently with the intent of minimizing Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, the truce appears to be a distant mirage. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi reportedly declared that during the negotiations, "unfortunately... the Americans (had) committed... aggressive actions, in violation of their own commitments," and therefore, Iran had not fulfilled its obligations under the memorandum. Meanwhile, on the Western front, while US President Donald Trump's approval ratings appear to be at rock bottom just as the so-called midterm elections scheduled for next November are approaching, oil prices are also rising. It might not be an exaggeration to think that Donald Trump's political debacle could be due to his failure to stem the conflict with Iran. But how long can Western Europe withstand the economic and social repercussions of Donald Trump's unpredictability? What should European leaders do, and how could they intervene diplomatically?
The new American administration led by Donald Trump has brought about more disruption to the global order than was foreseeable and/or even remotely imaginable. Someone once said, "Thinking the worst is a sin, but you're right." Well, perhaps, if one were to "think the worst," one could argue that, in terms of the detailed balances circumscribed by the so-called "spheres of influence," the United States—that of Donald Trump, to be clear—aims to negotiate directly with other spheres of influence, that is, with directly competing major powers, primarily China, as well as with other traditionally hostile powers, while also seeking to exert coercive relations with traditionally allied areas, such as the European Union. Put differently, with Donald Trump, the era of multilateralism would seem to have ended, favoring the return of national interests. Granted, and perhaps not granted, that Donald Trump is indeed acting in his own country's national interest. He certainly doesn't appear to be acting in the interests of Western Europe. The European Union, and even less so Italy, cannot afford to embrace an American (or rather, Trumpian) approach conceived in terms of unilateralism, especially at a time when the ongoing conflict with Iran threatens to have serious repercussions on energy and trade routes connected to the Strait of Hormuz. To put it briefly, the press has reported in recent days that the conflict and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are impacting the Sardinian economy on two main fronts: first, through a reduction in exports to the Persian Gulf countries estimated at up to €150 million, and second, through increased energy and transportation costs due to rising oil and gas prices. The Sardinian agricultural and pastoral sector itself is suffering significant price increases due to the rising cost of diesel and fertilizers. To date, a viable plan to counteract the negative effects of Trump's actions appears to be lacking. At European level, of course, even before at internal national level.
The European Union must finally present itself and assert itself as a genuine international player, transcending the logic of old nationalisms by integrating the twenty-seven national identities into a single political unity, establishing itself as an autonomous sphere of influence, even independently of its American ally (if it can be considered such). The real issue to be resolved remains the shopping cart, the daily cost of life, which the persistence of conflicts continues to weigh on. And this is where governments should intervene.
Giuseppina Di Salvatore
