Mohammed bin Salman visits Donald Trump's court for his first visit to the White House since 2018. It's a difficult meeting for the American president, who, reeling from criticism over the Jeffrey Epstein case, had hoped to ease the storm by securing Saudi Arabia's accession to the Abraham Accords. But an agreement seems highly unlikely: the tycoon is preparing to take the fall for Riyadh's refusal to normalize relations with the Netanyahu government, while tensions between Israel and UNIFIL are rising again, with a new IDF attack on UN peacekeepers.
The UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon announced that it had once again been targeted by Israeli forces, but without any consequences for its soldiers . "We did not fire deliberately: they were warning shots; we mistook the UNIFIL soldiers for two suspects," the IDF later said, announcing the opening of an investigation. Meanwhile, the spotlight remains on the face-to-face meeting between the tycoon and MBS with Riyadh, which is convinced that only a "clear diplomatic proposal for the creation of a Palestinian state" can pave the way for a normalization of relations with Israel, which the Saudis, however, rule out with the current Netanyahu government "composed of ministers like Smotrich and Ben Gvir."
A red line incompatible with the positions reiterated today by Jerusalem: "Our opposition to a Palestinian state in any territory west of the Jordan River exists," Bibi said, supported by the words of his defense minister. "Israel's policy is clear: there will be no Palestinian state," echoed Israel Katz. These two opposing positions force Trump to play a balancing act: on the one hand, avoiding irritating Israel, which the administration needs for the success of the Gaza peace plan, and on the other, avoiding alienating Riyadh, whose adherence to the Abraham Accords is considered crucial to the stability of the Middle East.
During his first term, Donald Trump had already attempted to convince the Saudis to normalize relations with Israel, as had his successor, Joe Biden. Without success. The American president now intends to try again, even if the road is uphill: persuading MBS that his 20-point peace plan is the path to the creation of a Palestinian state risks incurring Israeli ire, especially if Trump were to promise a timeline. Resigned to not securing an immediate Saudi signature on the Accords, the administration nevertheless hopes to bring home positive signals: according to rumors, it is cautiously optimistic about the possibility of obtaining MBS's acknowledgement that Trump's plan is a starting point toward a Palestinian state and a public commitment to consider joining the Abraham Accords, laying the groundwork for achieving this goal by the end of Trump's term.
A formal commitment would also be crucial in the current UN situation, where the Security Council will decide on the US resolution on Gaza on Monday. The Strip is looming as a split in half: one section under IDF control, the other under Hamas. This is a scenario for which Israel is preparing: the army must be ready to "rapidly establish operational control" of the areas of Gaza "beyond the Yellow Line," assured IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. A reception worthy of a state visit is planned for MBS's arrival.
The Trump Organization, led by the president's sons, is negotiating the purchase of a property from the Riyadh government, and Jared Kushner has received millions of dollars in Saudi investments in his funds. But while it represents a victory in itself, MBS's visit could leave the crown prince with a bitter taste in his mouth. Trump has repeatedly reiterated that he is evaluating the Saudi request to purchase F-35s but, according to rumors, appears unwilling to sign the sales authorization. He fears angering Israel and the possibility that their technology could be stolen or transferred to China.
(Unioneonline)
