The majority of Emmanuel Macron trembles. The radical left of Jean Luc Melenchon garnered more votes in the first round of the legislatures with its Nupes breakfast (between 25 and 26%) than the governing parties gathered under the Ensemble label! (25-25.8%).
In his first mandate, Macron could count on 341 parliamentary seats, a quota that is unattainable today. But for the president the absolute majority of 289 seats is also at risk , the gap for the government is between 275 and 310, the Melenchon left between 190 and 210.
Record abstention, with the lowest turnout in history between 47 and 47.5% . With these data, the key to victory is in the "pool of votes" on which each of the parties can count. Traditionally, the ballot reserves in the French legislative system are more on the side of the center parties when, as in the present case, they are dealing with two rather "extreme" parties on the left and right.
The Rassemblement National failed to take advantage of Marine Le Pen's result in the presidential elections, its candidates got between 18.5 and 19.8%, so the far right will be able to count on a number of deputies between 15 and 30. Le Pen was elected in the first round in her constituency. New defeat for the Republicans , between 11.6 and 14%.
MELENCHON
The winner is the 70-year-old Melenchon, who managed to unite under the banner of La France Insoumise from the Socialists to the Greens to the Communists. Excited, he launched an appeal to the people: “For the first time a president who wins the elections, fails to win the legislative. The president is beaten, undone . Now I launch an appeal to the people, pour yourself into the polls next Sunday ”.
RISKS FOR MACRON
"We need a strong and clear majority," said Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne instead, appointed by the coalition Ensemble! to speak on behalf of the government alliance after the elections. that allows them to carry out the ambitious reforms illustrated in the electoral campaign. In particular, the one, which has never been successful so far in France, to raise the age required for retirement to 65.
