The United States has already alerted the Gulf countries: a new offensive against Iran is possible after the midterm elections on November 3. This warning is also echoing in Tehran, where the threat of new strikes has loomed for weeks. "We will respond to any threat without geographical restrictions," Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assured in a meeting— still in a secret location—with the leaders of his armed forces, implying that the conflict could spread to the Gulf and beyond.
As mediators try to reach an agreement that will restart negotiations and avert an attack that could endanger Iran's neighbors, Donald Trump is weighing his next moves. "He hasn't made up his mind yet. We're open to a diplomatic solution to the conflict," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said from Atlanta, where he hosted the G20 foreign ministers, seeking to allay fears of an imminent attack.
These reassurances, however, are unconvincing. According to rumors, the commander-in-chief is ready to resume his attacks in the event of a resounding Republican defeat in the midterms. "If he feels embarrassed, he'll do something bold. That's what everyone tells the Iranians. The best time to reach an agreement is now," an American source explained to Axios. An attack could therefore be launched as early as November 4th, the day after the vote, if the conservatives lose: proceeding immediately would allow Trump to divert attention from a stinging defeat and assert his leadership role vis-à-vis the Democrats.
The administration is still divided on how to proceed, especially given the operation's enormous costs: the damage caused by the Iranian attacks on American military facilities in the Middle East alone could reach $15 billion, in addition to the more than $47 billion the war has cost so far. Rubio and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth are skeptical about reaching an agreement with the current regime, while J.D. Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner want to resume negotiations. The vice president's letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, fits this bill.
Despite authorizing the letter, appearing open to dialogue, Trump has serious doubts that Iran will sign an agreement he finds acceptable. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging the president to let the economic pressure campaign take effect rather than return to war.
Having emerged from the polls without a clear winner, Israel is looking ahead to the US elections and Trump's next moves. An attack would be a potential assist for Benjamin Netanyahu: it would allow him to remain in power with a national unity government that could also include Gadi Eisenkot. This option would reassure the US administration, which has repeatedly criticized the less-than-moderate positions of far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Behind the scenes, the mediators' pressure continues unabated. After a marathon 14-hour meeting on Friday, Qatar reconvened with Iran in Doha in an attempt to unblock the dialogue. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking on behalf of Tehran, called Vance's letter a "positive step" because it "opens the door to broader dialogue and understanding."
Negotiations have so far been hampered by two opposing demands: on the one hand, the Trump administration's insistence that Iran grant nuclear backing as a condition for resuming talks, and on the other, Tehran's demand that the US naval blockade be lifted and frozen funds be released. Despite this, mediators are pushing for an agreement that will avoid further chaos in the Middle East, prevent further attacks on the region's energy facilities, and allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which will foster global economic recovery.
(Unioneonline)