Those just concluded were the fifth political elections since April 2019; in 3 years the Israeli voters were called to the polls 5 times , each time the result was unclear and the difficulty of finding a stable government structure was such that it was necessary to go back to voting again.
The last government was made up of a coalition that is limiting to define varied: right, center, left, religious, nationalists and even an Arab-Islamic party.
He fell after a series of exits and returns from the majority for the most varied reasons (or pretexts): first Idit Silman, a parliamentarian of the religious right, had switched to the opposition because he contested the application of a 2020 Supreme Court ruling that allowed visitors to hospitals to bring leavened food during the Easter period (while religious are forbidden from any type of yeast during Easter); then Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi, an Arab-Israeli deputy from the left-wing Meretz party, came out of the majority criticizing the policies implemented towards the Arab-Israelis and the Palestinians; finally Nir Orbach, also from the right-wing religious party Yamina, had abandoned the majority in opposing what he said were the excessive demands of the left.
So, after just 19 months, voting has returned.
On Thursday evening the final results of the elections were announced: the right-wing coalition with the first party Likud led by Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, who will once again be appointed head of the Israeli government, clearly won .
Before analyzing these elections it is essential, to orient oneself once again in the complicated Israeli representation, to give the distribution of seats and clarify the positions of the various parties: Likud 32 seats (historical party of the Israeli right); Yesh Atid 24 (moderates, liberals and seculars, leader Yair Lapid); Religious Zionist 14 (far-right religious Zionism, leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir), National Unity 12 (center, leader Benny Gantz), Shas 11 (ultra-Orthodox of Sephardi tradition), UTJ 7 (United Torah Judaism, a union of ultra-Orthodox parties of Ashkenazi tradition), Yisrael Beytenu 6 (right-wing nationalist and anticlerical, leader Avigdor Lieberman), Ra'am 5 (Islamic Arab party), Hadash-Ta'al 5 (unitary list of left-wing formations with Ta'al , secular Arab-Israeli party led by Ahmad Tibi), Labor 4 (historic Labor party of Israel's founders). Left out of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, Meretz (another secular left party that obtained 3.16 of the votes), Balad (non-Islamic Arab party with 2.90) and La Casa Ebraica (far-right party with 1.19); the threshold set at 3.25% of valid votes did not allow these formations to elect anyone.
It is therefore clear that Netanyahu could build a right-wing coalition made up of Likud, Religious Zionist, Shas and UTJ that would allow him to have 63 seats out of the 120 total.
Israel has been ruled by the right or centrists since 2001, the last Labor Prime Minister was Ehud Barak ; but what is likely to occur now would be the rightmost government in Israeli history. And with one component, that of the religious Zionists, of the extreme right, homophobic and with racist tendencies.
According to Amos Harel, a columnist for Haaretz, one of the first objectives of this government will be to work so that Netanyahu does not go to prison. Therefore to operate on laws and also on the procedures for the appointment of judges. In general, a coalition of this type, according to the centrist and ex-military Benny Gantz, risks having a very strong hold on the many interests in common but also as a reaction to those who are today in the opposition and have in fact lost their "war ”Against Netanyahu.
This sort of obsession, including the trial for corruption, fraud and breach of trust that Bibi is undergoing, seems, according to Herb Keinon, columnist for the Jerusalem Post, to have instead had the opposite effect in the voters. The trial was carried out "in an awkward and uncertain manner by the judges" and in the end it does not seem to have brought votes to Bibi's opponents. Indeed, the opposite has happened and although for a short while (the right-wing bloc in total has fewer than 15,000 votes more than its competitors) in the end it will be Netanyahu again who will create the next government in Israel.
The new series of attacks that took place starting from May 2021 undoubtedly also contributed to the victory of the right : the Arab terrorists confirm that they are the best friends of the right. And of course they also vote right in settlements beyond the historic "green line" which are now numerically enormous.
Israel, according to demographer Sergio Della Pergola interviewed by the weekly Moked "[...] is part of a transnational movement which includes Italy, France, England, Sweden, the United States as well as Brazil, albeit with its surprising result in the opposite sense. This movement conveys within itself and resurrects nationalism, populism, chauvinism and revanchism ”.
Israel, its political and social history is not easy to understand: yours is a complex and often contradictory and imperfect society . But now there may be a government that risks being difficult to manage even for Netanyahu because with too many extremists intent on changing the rules of Israeli democracy (for example by limiting the guarantee powers of the Supreme Court).
The next few weeks will make the situation clearer.
Filippo Petrucci - Cagliari