The standoff between the US and Iran appears set to resolve itself soon, one way or another. All parties involved are reporting progress following mediators' visit to Tehran on Friday. But for now, the final push toward what should only be a preliminary agreement or memorandum of understanding, with a two-month extension of the truce, is lacking.
Donald Trump announced to CBS News that "we are getting significantly closer" to an agreement and that a final agreement would prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon by ensuring that Iran's enriched uranium is "satisfactorily managed." "I will only sign an agreement if we get everything we want," he stressed.
In an interview with Axios, he revealed that he would discuss the latest draft of the agreement with his advisors (Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vice President J.D. Vance) and that he could decide by Sunday whether or not to resume the war. The moment appears so crucial that it prompted him to skip his son Donald Jr.'s wedding to Bettina Anderson on a private island in the Bahamas. The commander in chief stated that the odds of a "good" agreement or an attack to "completely wipe them out" are "50-50." Also crucial will be the call with Gulf leaders, who have so far been pushing for a diplomatic solution. Participants include the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Turkey, as well as Pakistan, which remains the main mediator. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting India, also spoke of progress on Iran, warning that "later today, tomorrow, or in a couple of days, we may have something to announce."
The prospect of a diplomatic agreement worries Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, according to the New York Times, has been excluded from the negotiations, effectively moving from a "co-pilot" role to that of a "mere passenger" in the crisis. But Tehran, which says it has reorganized its armed forces during this month-long truce, appears more cautious about the progress of the talks. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei made a cryptic statement: "We are both very close and very far from an agreement," he said, acknowledging that "the current momentum of the negotiations is leading to a narrowing of differences," but clarifying that "this does not mean we have reached full understanding on issues of such immense importance, but rather that we are moving toward a mutually acceptable solution based on a set of defined parameters." Baghaei explained that Tehran's goal now is "a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU), which includes the most critical issues needed to end the war, along with issues of fundamental importance to Iran."
Once this preliminary MoU is finalized, a structured 30-60 day timetable will be established to negotiate the technical details before reaching a final, comprehensive agreement. According to the Financial Times, mediators between Iran and the United States believe they are close to an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and lay the groundwork for discussions on Iran's nuclear program. The agreement would include a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a commitment to discuss how to dilute or hand over Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Al Arabiya reported that "Iran has offered to suspend uranium enrichment above 3.6% for 10 years (compared to the 15 years envisaged in the Obama-brokered deal) and to dilute uranium enriched above 20% within the country; to open the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily suspend toll payments in exchange for compensation from Washington, demanding that the issue of sanctions and frozen funds be discussed before any agreement is signed."
Among the issues is the truce in Lebanon, where Israel continues to pound Hezbollah, a militia allied with Tehran, and where raids have killed at least 15 more people. But the main obstacle remains the nuclear program: the ayatollahs are postponing any discussions until a later stage, while the tycoon demands a commitment that will allow him to claim victory. Meanwhile, he's provoking on social media, posting on Truth a map of the Middle East with Iran marked in the colors of the American flag and the caption "The United States of the Middle East?"
(Unioneonline)