Complex, very uphill, at risk of "no deal". Less than a hundred hours from the July 9 deadline , the agreement between the EU and the United States on tariffs is described as anything but within reach .
As the mutual pause on tariffs approaches its expiry, the EU and the US are trying their last hand in their chess game. With Donald Trump once again threatening European companies by brandishing the 17% figure for agri-food exports, one of the most precious for the Old Continent . In Aarhus, where the Commission flew for the start of the Danish presidency and where it held a closed-door seminar on the State of the Union, the shadow of Trump and his trade war was a constant background noise. In Brussels, meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen's chief of staff, Bjorn Seibert, and Sabine Weyand, head of the Commission's Directorate-General for Trade, briefed the ambassadors of the 27 on the state of the art.
The main point remains one: whether the EU and the US will reach an agreement in principle or not. At that point the current 10% tariff could be maintained by Trump but, in Brussels, it is not excluded that Washington could temporarily raise it to 20% , until a definitive agreement is found.
The Commission and the Trump administration will talk again over the weekend, via video call. This may be the decisive moment to understand whether an agreement in principle, on the model of those signed by the US with Great Britain (10%) and Vietnam (at 20%) is within reach . "The negotiated solution remains our priority. At the same time, we are preparing for the eventuality that a satisfactory agreement is not reached", explained a spokesperson for the EU executive.
There is a non-secondary issue that is emerging again among the chancelleries: given that a possible agreement with the USA will necessarily be unbalanced in favor of Washington, several member countries are asking a question: how will the EU remedy the imbalance? And it is here that Europe risks splitting between those who maintain that an agreement, even if imperfect, should still be achieved, and those who believe that in the face of an agreement that is too disadvantageous, Brussels should flex its muscles .
(Online Union)
