The Biden administration has informed US parliamentarians and European partners in recent days that Russia has assembled 70% of the forces necessary for a complete invasion of Ukraine.
The New York Times writes it. According to Washington forecasts, the invasion could cause up to 50,000 civilian deaths and 23,000 Ukrainian soldiers (in addition to 3000-10,000 Russian soldiers), make Kiev capitulate in two days and unleash a humanitarian crisis with 5 million refugees in Europe.
US intelligence does not think that Putin has already decided, but is convinced that the diplomatic window is closing. In the event, it is Washington's belief, it will not move until the second half of February, when the frozen ground would facilitate the passage of heavy vehicles and the Beijing Winter Olympics will be almost over, thus avoiding antagonizing Chinese President Xi Jinping. which remains an indispensable ally.
In the meantime, the troops deployed from Moscow have increased: 83 groups of tactical battalions, with about 750 soldiers each, compared to 60 two weeks ago. The troops are supported by tens of thousands of people for logistics, air support and medical support.
THE REPLICATION OF MOSCOW - Moscow's response is dry, which considers US speculations to be "madness". "The madness and alarmism continue," said Russian Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyanskiy, adding: "What if we said that the United States could seize London in a week and cause the deaths of 300,000 civilians? of our intelligence sources that we will not disclose. "
KIEV: "NO ALARMISMS" - Even Kiev, stressing that "the chances of a diplomatic solution are greater than those of a military escalation in Ukraine", invites us not to alarm.
"Don't believe the apocalyptic predictions", tweeted the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba. "Different capitals - he continues - have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development. Today Ukraine has a strong army, unprecedented international support and the confidence of Ukrainians in their country".
